DESK REVIEWS | 01.01.04. Population projections

DESK REVIEW | 01.01.04. Population projections

Population projections between 2010 and 2060 show that the proportion of people aged 14 years and below will decrease from approximately 25% to 15%. In the age-group 15-64 years, this proportion will also diminish from around 68% in 2010 to 60% in 2060. Differently, among people aged 65 and over, the proportion will increase from around 7.3% in 2010 to 25.5% in 2060. However, such figures are remarkably different across the country’s regions (more older people tend to be located in the southern areas and fewer older people tend to be located in the northern areas) due to socioeconomic and health conditions that significantly affect life expectancy rates (see next item about life expectancy) (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, 2019g). In 2019, the growth rate in Brazil was 0.79% per year. (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, 2019d).

The total dependency ratio in Brazil means the ratio of the population assumed as economically dependent (those under 15 years old and those over 60 years old) and the age segment assumed to be productive (those between 15 and 59 years old) among a population living in a specific geographical area, in a specific year. High values indicate that the “working-age population” must sustain a large proportion of dependents. (RIPSA, 2019). In other words, this measure is used to show differences in the size of population groups that are assumed not to be in engaged in the labour market and those who are. Currently, the total dependence ratio in Brazil is of around 44.29 (2020) and it is expected to increase to 67.23 by 2060. In people aged 65 and over, the dependency ratio is of 14.18, which is expected to reach 42.62 by 2060 (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, 2019c).

References:

Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. (2019c). IBGE | Projeção da população. https://www.ibge.gov.br/apps/populacao/projecao/index.html

Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. (2019d). IBGE divulga as estimativas da população dos municípios para 2019. https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/agencia-sala-de-imprensa/2013-agencia-de-noticias/releases/25278-ibge-divulga-as-estimativas-da-populacao-dos-municipios-para-2019

Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. (2019g). Population projections.

RIPSA. (2019). Razão de Dependência.

Projections made by the National Commission of Population (NCP, 2019) indicate that the total population is likely to increase from 1211 million to 1518 million between the period 2011-2036. This is a 25% overall increase at a rate of 1% per year (NCP, 2019). The population age groups set to increase during this period are those aged 60 and above (increase from 8.4% in 2011 to 14.9% in 2036), and those between 15-59 years of age (increase from 60.7 in 2011 to 64.9% in 2036) (NCP, 2019). The urban population is also further expected to increase from the 31.8% reported by Census 2011, to 38.6% (NCP, 2019).

References:

National Commission of Population (NCP). (2019). Census of India 2011: Population Projections for India and States 2011-2036. REPORT OF THE TECHNICAL GROUP ON POPULATION PROJECTIONS. National Health Mission. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Available from: https://nhm.gov.in/New_Updates_2018/Report_Population_Projection_2019.pdf

Indonesia is the fourth most populous country after China, India, and the United States, with a population of 262.79 million people in 2018 (CIA World Factbook, 2019), which is predicted to rise to 305.6 million in 2035 (Subdirectorate of Statistical Demographic, 2013). Population growth rate is estimated to be 0.83% (2018) placing Indonesia on rank 127 (out of 234) in world comparison (CIA World Factbook, 2019).

Since the 1970s, the introduction of family planning programmes and the wider access to health care have contributed to a considerable shift in demographics by reducing fertility and increasing life expectancy. Population projections assume that by 2035 fertility rates will have fallen below replacement level (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, pp.2-3).

In 2010, according to Census data, 7.6 percent of the population in Indonesia (18 million people) were aged 60 year or older. Since 1971, the older population of Indonesia has increased by 3.1 per cent. The proportion of older Indonesians is expected to continue to increase by 8.2 per cent until 2035. This would mean that 15.8 per cent of the population would be aged 60 or older by 2035 (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, p.xv).

In addition, looking at the demographic projections among older Indonesians shows that increasing numbers of Indonesians will be very old. Census data suggests that by 2020 the largest proportion of older people will be aged 60 to 64 years. As this group ages, the number of the older old is expected to grow and the number of younger old will start to decline (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, p.15).

The increasing number of older people as a share of the Indonesian population has implications on the expected support ratio. While there were 7.7 older people supported by 100 workers in 2010, the number of dependents (including children) is expected to increase to 44 per 100 workers  (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014; Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia, 2015b).

References:

Adioetomo, S. M., & Mujahid, G. (2014). Indonesia on The Threshold of Population Ageing – UNFPA Indonesia Monograph Series: No.1. (H. Posselt, Ed.; Issue 1). UNFPA Indonesia.

CIA World Factbook. (2019). Indonesia. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/indonesia/

Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia. (2015b). National Strategy: Management of Alzheimer and Other Dementia Diseases: Towards Healthy and Productive Older Persons. Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia.

Subdirectorate of Statistical Demographic. (2013). Indonesia Population Projection 2010-2035. BPS – Statistics Indonesia.

Since the mid-20th century, there has been increasing population growth due to high birth rates and decreasing mortality rates. However, after the introduction of family planning programs in 1967 (Kenya was the first Sub-Saharan African country to introduce a national family program), there has been a substantial decrease in birth rates from about 8 children per woman in the late 1970s to an average of 4 children today (Index Mundi, 2019b; Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), 2019) and this is likely to drop down to 2.4 children by 2050 (Fengler, 2010). Despite the intercensal growth rate declining from 2.9% in 2009 to 2.2% in 2019 (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), 2019), UN projections indicate that Kenya’s population will grow by around 1 million per year and are therefore expected to reach about 85 million by 2050 (Fengler, 2010).

References:

Fengler, W. (2010). Demographic Transition and Growth in Kenya. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2010/04/28/demographic-transition-growth-kenya

IndexMundi. (2019b). Kenya Demographics Profile 2018. https://www.indexmundi.com/kenya/demographics_profile.html

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). (2019). 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census Volume I : Population By County and Sub-County (Vol. I). Nairobi, Kenya.

The 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects[1] (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2017a) has estimated that the total population in Mexico will be 147.5 million in the year 2030, 164.3 in 2050, and 151.5 in 2100.

[1] The World Population Prospects present global demographic profiles of the official United Nations population estimates and projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. Information from Mexico in the report is obtained through several official data sources such as the Population Census and National Demographic Surveys, among others.

References:

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, P. D. (2017a). World Population Prospects. Key findings & advance tables. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/248. https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/files/wpp2017_keyfindings.pdf