Population projections between 2010 and 2060 show that the proportion of people aged 14 years and below will decrease from approximately 25% to 15%. In the age-group 15-64 years, this proportion will also diminish from around 68% in 2010 to 60% in 2060. Differently, among people aged 65 and over, the proportion will increase from around 7.3% in 2010 to 25.5% in 2060. However, such figures are remarkably different across the country’s regions (more older people tend to be located in the southern areas and fewer older people tend to be located in the northern areas) due to socioeconomic and health conditions that significantly affect life expectancy rates (see next item about life expectancy) (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, 2019g). In 2019, the growth rate in Brazil was 0.79% per year. (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, 2019d).

The total dependency ratio in Brazil means the ratio of the population assumed as economically dependent (those under 15 years old and those over 60 years old) and the age segment assumed to be productive (those between 15 and 59 years old) among a population living in a specific geographical area, in a specific year. High values indicate that the “working-age population” must sustain a large proportion of dependents. (RIPSA, 2019). In other words, this measure is used to show differences in the size of population groups that are assumed not to be in engaged in the labour market and those who are. Currently, the total dependence ratio in Brazil is of around 44.29 (2020) and it is expected to increase to 67.23 by 2060. In people aged 65 and over, the dependency ratio is of 14.18, which is expected to reach 42.62 by 2060 (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, 2019c).

References:

Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. (2019c). IBGE | Projeção da população. https://www.ibge.gov.br/apps/populacao/projecao/index.html

Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. (2019d). IBGE divulga as estimativas da população dos municípios para 2019. https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/agencia-sala-de-imprensa/2013-agencia-de-noticias/releases/25278-ibge-divulga-as-estimativas-da-populacao-dos-municipios-para-2019

Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. (2019g). Population projections.

RIPSA. (2019). Razão de Dependência.

The total population of Hong Kong was projected to increase from 7.34 million in mid-2016 to 8.14 million in mid-2036, and then decline to 7.72 million in mid-2066. Yet, for the population aged 65 and over, it was projected to expand from 1.16 million (16.6%) in 2016 to 2.37 million (31.3%) in 2036, and further increase to 2.59 million (33.7%) in 2066 (Census and Statistics Department, 2017b).

The population growth rate of Hong Kong was 1.0% in 2018 (Census and Statistics Department, 2019g). The total fertility rate (live births per 1,000 women) was projected to decrease from 1,205 in 2016 to 1,134 in 2036 and further to 1,166 in 2066 (Census and Statistics Department, 2017b).

References:

Census and Statistics Department. (2017b). Hong Kong Population Projections 2017–2066. In: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong.

Census and Statistics Department. (2019g). Table 003: Population Growth by Component. Retrieved 9 October, 2019, from Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR https://www.censtatd.gov.hk/showtablenewexcel.jsp?tableID=003&charsetID=1

Projections made by the National Commission of Population (NCP, 2019) indicate that the total population is likely to increase from 1211 million to 1518 million between the period 2011-2036. This is a 25% overall increase at a rate of 1% per year (NCP, 2019). The population age groups set to increase during this period are those aged 60 and above (increase from 8.4% in 2011 to 14.9% in 2036), and those between 15-59 years of age (increase from 60.7 in 2011 to 64.9% in 2036) (NCP, 2019). The urban population is also further expected to increase from the 31.8% reported by Census 2011, to 38.6% (NCP, 2019).

References:

National Commission of Population (NCP). (2019). Census of India 2011: Population Projections for India and States 2011-2036. REPORT OF THE TECHNICAL GROUP ON POPULATION PROJECTIONS. National Health Mission. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Available from: https://nhm.gov.in/New_Updates_2018/Report_Population_Projection_2019.pdf

Indonesia is the fourth most populous country after China, India, and the United States, with a population of 262.79 million people in 2018 (CIA World Factbook, 2019), which is predicted to rise to 305.6 million in 2035 (Subdirectorate of Statistical Demographic, 2013). Population growth rate is estimated to be 0.83% (2018) placing Indonesia on rank 127 (out of 234) in world comparison (CIA World Factbook, 2019).

Since the 1970s, the introduction of family planning programmes and the wider access to health care have contributed to a considerable shift in demographics by reducing fertility and increasing life expectancy. Population projections assume that by 2035 fertility rates will have fallen below replacement level (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, pp.2-3).

In 2010, according to Census data, 7.6 percent of the population in Indonesia (18 million people) were aged 60 year or older. Since 1971, the older population of Indonesia has increased by 3.1 per cent. The proportion of older Indonesians is expected to continue to increase by 8.2 per cent until 2035. This would mean that 15.8 per cent of the population would be aged 60 or older by 2035 (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, p.xv).

In addition, looking at the demographic projections among older Indonesians shows that increasing numbers of Indonesians will be very old. Census data suggests that by 2020 the largest proportion of older people will be aged 60 to 64 years. As this group ages, the number of the older old is expected to grow and the number of younger old will start to decline (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, p.15).

The increasing number of older people as a share of the Indonesian population has implications on the expected support ratio. While there were 7.7 older people supported by 100 workers in 2010, the number of dependents (including children) is expected to increase to 44 per 100 workers  (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014; Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia, 2015b).

References:

Adioetomo, S. M., & Mujahid, G. (2014). Indonesia on The Threshold of Population Ageing – UNFPA Indonesia Monograph Series: No.1. (H. Posselt, Ed.; Issue 1). UNFPA Indonesia.

CIA World Factbook. (2019). Indonesia. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/indonesia/

Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia. (2015b). National Strategy: Management of Alzheimer and Other Dementia Diseases: Towards Healthy and Productive Older Persons. Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia.

Subdirectorate of Statistical Demographic. (2013). Indonesia Population Projection 2010-2035. BPS – Statistics Indonesia.

Jamaica’s growth rate between 2002 and 2016 has gradually declined with a growth rate of 0.36% between 2002 and 2003 and 0.06% between 2015 and 2016. In fact, Jamaica experienced an overall negative population growth of -0.02% for 2016 to 2017 and -0.06% for 2017 to 2018. Important to note, the elderly age range, 60 and over along with age range 25-29, saw a positive growth between 2017 and 2018 (see table 1). Despite the overall negative growth in recent years, Jamaica’s population is projected to increase  from 2.7 million to 3.2 million in 2025 and 3.8 million in 2050 (STATIN, n.d.).

Table 1. Estimated growth rates, 2017-2018

Data Source: Adapted from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, 2018

Changes in the population growth trends in the demographic structure of Jamaica are being influenced by continuing declines in fertility rates, and by an increase in mortality combined with high levels of external migration. Based on statistical trends, it is projected that by 2050, children will account for 20 per cent of the general population, representing a 57.4 per cent decline from 1970.

Total Fertility Rate:

After years of steady decline, Jamaica’s total fertility rate is now at two children per woman according to the State of the World Population 2018 report (The Gleaner, 2018).

Median age of the population

According to the CIA World Fact Book, the median age of Jamaicans is 28.6 years; for men it is 27.8 years and for women, 29.3 years (CIA World Factbook, 2019).

 References:

CIA World Factbook. (2019). Jamaica. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/jamaica/

Statistical Institute of Jamaica. (2018). https://statinja.gov.jm/

The Gleaner. (2018, November 9). Two is enough – Ja continues to see steady decline in fertility rate | Lead Stories | Jamaica Gleaner. http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/lead-stories/20181109/two-enough-ja-continues-see-steady-decline-fertility-rate

Since the mid-20^th century, there has been increasing population growth due to high birth rates and decreasing mortality rates. However, after the introduction of family planning programs in 1967 (Kenya was the first Sub-Saharan African country to introduce a national family program), there has been a substantial decrease in birth rates from about 8 children per woman in the late 1970s to an average of 4 children today (Index Mundi, 2019b; Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), 2019) and this is likely to drop down to 2.4 children by 2050 (Fengler, 2010). Despite the intercensal growth rate declining from 2.9% in 2009 to 2.2% in 2019 (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), 2019), UN projections indicate that Kenya’s population will grow by around 1 million per year and are therefore expected to reach about 85 million by 2050 (Fengler, 2010).

References:

Fengler, W. (2010). Demographic Transition and Growth in Kenya. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2010/04/28/demographic-transition-growth-kenya

IndexMundi. (2019b). Kenya Demographics Profile 2018. https://www.indexmundi.com/kenya/demographics_profile.html

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). (2019). 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census Volume I : Population By County and Sub-County (Vol. I). Nairobi, Kenya.

The 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects^[1] (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2017a) has estimated that the total population in Mexico will be 147.5 million in the year 2030, 164.3 in 2050, and 151.5 in 2100.

[1] The World Population Prospects present global demographic profiles of the official United Nations population estimates and projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. Information from Mexico in the report is obtained through several official data sources such as the Population Census and National Demographic Surveys, among others.

References:

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, P. D. (2017a). World Population Prospects. Key findings & advance tables. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/248. https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/files/wpp2017_keyfindings.pdf

Table 7 shows the population projections for 2028 and 2038 for the total population and the Pacific population in New Zealand. New Zealand’s population is projected to increase by almost 15% by 2028 and by 22% in 2038.

The population aged 65+ is projected to increase to 1.04 million (19.4% of the population) by 2028 and 1.3 million (22.5%) by 2038. The proportion of the population aged 65+ for Pacific populations is projected to increase at a much faster rate with an over 70% increase to over 35,000 (7.3% of the Pacific population) by 2028 and nearly tripling in the 20 years from 2018-2038 to over 54,000 (9.2%). Pacific populations will continue to have a younger age structure compared to the total population due to their higher birth rates and this is evident in the almost doubling of the 0-15 years age band in 2038 compared to a static picture for the total New Zealand population.

Table 7: Population projections for the total NZ population and Pacific population

According to projections, the overall South African growth rate has increased between 2002 and 2018, with a growth rate of 1.04% for 2002-2003 and 1.55% for 2017-2018 (StatsSA, 2018d).

Table 3: Estimated growth rates, 2017-2018

Source: Adapted from (StatsSA, 2018d) Mid-year population estimates (appendix 4), p.22.

By the year 2050 the South African population is expected to increase to 73 million people (Ritchie & Roser, 2019; United Nations, 2017), with older persons 65 years and over predicted to increase to 10.5% of the population (i.e., from 5.7% in 2015) (Kohler & Behrman, 2015).

References:

Kohler, H., & Behrman, J. (2015). South Africa Perspectives Population.

Ritchie, H., & Roser, M. (2019). Age Structure. Our World in Data. https://doi.org/10.1016/b0-08-043076-7/01822-2

StatsSA. (2018d). Quarterly Labour Force Survey. Available from: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=11882

United Nations. (2017). World Population Prospects The 2017 Revision Key Findings and Advance Tables. World Population Prospects The 2017, 1–46. Available from: https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/files/wpp2017_keyfindings.pdf