01.01.05. Ageing and life expectancy | Indonesia
01.01.05. Ageing and life expectancy | Indonesia
11 Apr 2022
In the last four decades, average life expectancy has increased dramatically, from 45 years in 1971 to 73.2 years in 2018 (70.6 for males and 76.6 for females) (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014; CIA World Factbook, 2019). However, the ageing pattern of Indonesia is complex. Indonesia defines older people as people aged 60 or over (Pusat Data dan Informasi Kementerian Kesehatan RI, 2014).
In provinces, where family planning policies showed greatest success, such as in East Java, the proportion of older people is higher than in other parts of the country. In comparison, in East Java the proportion of older people as part of total population growth is estimated to increase by over 24 per cent, while in East Nusa Tenggara older people are only expected to contribute 17.4 per cent to population growth (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, p.xi). The largest proportion of older people in Indonesia (57%) can be found in the three most populated provinces East Java, Central Java, and West Java (over 47% of the Indonesia population). Projections based on 2010 Census data suggest that the proportion of older people will increase across all 33 provinces. This data does not include projections for the 34th province, North Kalimantan, which was only established in 2015 (Legislation no. 20/2012). The provinces, where older people make up a larger share of the population may have a higher prevalence of dementia, as ageing and non-communicable diseases are the main risk factors of reduced cognitive function (Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia, 2015b).
Furthermore, differences in the proportion of older people can also be found between urban and rural areas. Data from the 2010 Census suggest that a greater proportion of older people (8.7%) lives in rural than in urban (6.5%) areas and people in rural areas are also likely to be older than those in urban areas. Finally, an urban-rural difference can also be found for potential support ratios, suggesting a lower ratio for urban (11.0) than rural (16.1) areas according to Census 2010 data. This difference is likely to be related to in-country migration patterns, where younger people move to urban areas for education and employment, while older people move back to rural areas for retirement (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, pp.22-26).
Based on the 2010 census, it was predicted that the proportion of older people (65+) will increase from 5.0% in 2010 to 5.4% by 2015, 6.2% by 2020 and reach 10.6% by 2050. However, it can be difficult to compare this data to information from other sources as in Indonesia ‘older people’ are defined as people aged 60 or above. Data for people aged 60 and older is more commonly available.
The dependency ratio reflects the ratio between the number of people requiring support (children and older people) to those of working age. Since 1971 the total dependency ratio for Indonesia has been declining but the curve is expected to stall over the next decade. The total dependency ratio in 2015 was estimated to be 49.2 (CIA World Factbook, 2019). However, an increasing old-age dependency ratio is likely to offset this trend after 2030. In 2015, the old-age dependency ratio was estimated to be 7.6, but by 2035 this ratio is expected to increase to 15.6 (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, p.8; CIA World Factbook, 2019).
Male life expectancy at birth (70.6 years) is considerably lower than female life expectancy (76.6 years, 2018 estimate). In terms of overall life expectancy Indonesia ranks 142th in the world (CIA World Factbook, 2019).
In the last four decades, life expectancy has increased dramatically, from 45 years in 1971 to 73.2 years in 2018 (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014; CIA World Factbook, 2019).
The median age of the Indonesian population in 2018 was estimated to be 30 years. Males were found to be slightly younger (29.9 years median age) than females (31.1 years median age) (CIA World Factbook, 2019). Future projections suggest that median age will increase to 33.7 years by 2035 (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, p.9).
Total fertility rate in Indonesia in 2016 was estimated to be 2.4. This is a considerable decrease from an estimated 5.7 in 1960 (World Bank, 2018a).
Adioetomo, S. M., & Mujahid, G. (2014). Indonesia on The Threshold of Population Ageing – UNFPA Indonesia Monograph Series: No.1. (H. Posselt, Ed.; Issue 1). UNFPA Indonesia.
CIA World Factbook. (2019). Indonesia. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/indonesia/
Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia. (2015b). National Strategy: Management of Alzheimer and Other Dementia Diseases: Towards Healthy and Productive Older Persons. Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia.
Pusat Data dan Informasi Kementerian Kesehatan RI. (2014). Situasi dan analisis lanjut usia (pp. 1–7).
Subdirectorate of Statistical Demographic. (2013). Indonesia Population Projection 2010-2035. BPS – Statistics Indonesia.
World Bank. (2018a). Fertility rate, total (births per woman) – Indonesia. World Development Indicators. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=ID