01.01.04. Population projections | South Africa

01.01.04. Population projections | South Africa

12 Aug 2022

According to projections, the overall South African growth rate has increased between 2002 and 2018, with a growth rate of 1.04% for 2002-2003 and 1.55% for 2017-2018 (StatsSA, 2018d).

Table 3: Estimated growth rates, 2017-2018

Age range Rate
Children 0-14 1.41
Youth 15-24 -0.74
Adults 25-59 2.20
Elderly 60+ 3.21

Source: Adapted from (StatsSA, 2018d) Mid-year population estimates (appendix 4), p.22.

By the year 2050 the South African population is expected to increase to 73 million people (Ritchie & Roser, 2019; United Nations, 2017), with older persons 65 years and over predicted to increase to 10.5% of the population (i.e., from 5.7% in 2015) (Kohler & Behrman, 2015).

References:

Kohler, H., & Behrman, J. (2015). South Africa Perspectives Population.

Ritchie, H., & Roser, M. (2019). Age Structure. Our World in Data. https://doi.org/10.1016/b0-08-043076-7/01822-2

StatsSA. (2018d). Quarterly Labour Force Survey. Available from: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=11882

United Nations. (2017). World Population Prospects The 2017 Revision Key Findings and Advance Tables. World Population Prospects The 2017, 1–46. Available from: https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/files/wpp2017_keyfindings.pdf