Table 7 shows the population projections for 2028 and 2038 for the total population and the Pacific population in New Zealand. New Zealand’s population is projected to increase by almost 15% by 2028 and by 22% in 2038.

The population aged 65+ is projected to increase to 1.04 million (19.4% of the population) by 2028 and 1.3 million (22.5%) by 2038. The proportion of the population aged 65+ for Pacific populations is projected to increase at a much faster rate with an over 70% increase to over 35,000 (7.3% of the Pacific population) by 2028 and nearly tripling in the 20 years from 2018-2038 to over 54,000 (9.2%). Pacific populations will continue to have a younger age structure compared to the total population due to their higher birth rates and this is evident in the almost doubling of the 0-15 years age band in 2038 compared to a static picture for the total New Zealand population.

Table 7: Population projections for the total NZ population and Pacific population

	2028			2038
	Total	0-15	65+	Total	0-15	65+
Total NZ	5,389,700	982,700 (18.2%)	1,045,000 (19.4%)	5,769,800	984,800	1,303,400 (22.5%)
% change from 2018	115%	103%	138%	123%	103%	172%
European	3,678,000	671,100	832,200	3,781,500	671,800	979,200
% change from 2018	111%	108%	135%	114%	108%	159%
Pacific	484,900	149,500 (30.8%)	35,100 (7.3%)	590,100	174,300	54,300 (9.2%)
% change from 2018	127%	170%	171.4%	153%	199%	265%
Maori	905,300	268,900	85,300	1,059,400	298,200	126,000
% change from 2018	116%	108%	177%	136%	120%	259%
Asian	1,034,000	201,900	126,900	1,272,200	209,100	203,000
% change from 2018	146%	141%	279%	179%	146%	446%