01.01.04. Population projections | Kenya

01.01.04. Population projections | Kenya

14 Feb 2022

Since the mid-20th century, there has been increasing population growth due to high birth rates and decreasing mortality rates. However, after the introduction of family planning programs in 1967 (Kenya was the first Sub-Saharan African country to introduce a national family program), there has been a substantial decrease in birth rates from about 8 children per woman in the late 1970s to an average of 4 children today (Index Mundi, 2019b; Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), 2019) and this is likely to drop down to 2.4 children by 2050 (Fengler, 2010). Despite the intercensal growth rate declining from 2.9% in 2009 to 2.2% in 2019 (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), 2019), UN projections indicate that Kenya’s population will grow by around 1 million per year and are therefore expected to reach about 85 million by 2050 (Fengler, 2010).


Fengler, W. (2010). Demographic Transition and Growth in Kenya. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2010/04/28/demographic-transition-growth-kenya

IndexMundi. (2019b). Kenya Demographics Profile 2018. https://www.indexmundi.com/kenya/demographics_profile.html

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). (2019). 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census Volume I : Population By County and Sub-County (Vol. I). Nairobi, Kenya.