Since the mid-20^th century, there has been increasing population growth due to high birth rates and decreasing mortality rates. However, after the introduction of family planning programs in 1967 (Kenya was the first Sub-Saharan African country to introduce a national family program), there has been a substantial decrease in birth rates from about 8 children per woman in the late 1970s to an average of 4 children today (Index Mundi, 2019b; Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), 2019) and this is likely to drop down to 2.4 children by 2050 (Fengler, 2010). Despite the intercensal growth rate declining from 2.9% in 2009 to 2.2% in 2019 (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), 2019), UN projections indicate that Kenya’s population will grow by around 1 million per year and are therefore expected to reach about 85 million by 2050 (Fengler, 2010).

References:

Fengler, W. (2010). Demographic Transition and Growth in Kenya. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2010/04/28/demographic-transition-growth-kenya

IndexMundi. (2019b). Kenya Demographics Profile 2018. https://www.indexmundi.com/kenya/demographics_profile.html

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). (2019). 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census Volume I : Population By County and Sub-County (Vol. I). Nairobi, Kenya.