01.01.04. Population projections | Indonesia

01.01.04. Population projections | Indonesia

11 Apr 2022

Indonesia is the fourth most populous country after China, India, and the United States, with a population of 262.79 million people in 2018 (CIA World Factbook, 2019), which is predicted to rise to 305.6 million in 2035 (Subdirectorate of Statistical Demographic, 2013). Population growth rate is estimated to be 0.83% (2018) placing Indonesia on rank 127 (out of 234) in world comparison (CIA World Factbook, 2019).

Since the 1970s, the introduction of family planning programmes and the wider access to health care have contributed to a considerable shift in demographics by reducing fertility and increasing life expectancy. Population projections assume that by 2035 fertility rates will have fallen below replacement level (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, pp.2-3).

In 2010, according to Census data, 7.6 percent of the population in Indonesia (18 million people) were aged 60 year or older. Since 1971, the older population of Indonesia has increased by 3.1 per cent. The proportion of older Indonesians is expected to continue to increase by 8.2 per cent until 2035. This would mean that 15.8 per cent of the population would be aged 60 or older by 2035 (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, p.xv).

In addition, looking at the demographic projections among older Indonesians shows that increasing numbers of Indonesians will be very old. Census data suggests that by 2020 the largest proportion of older people will be aged 60 to 64 years. As this group ages, the number of the older old is expected to grow and the number of younger old will start to decline (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, p.15).

The increasing number of older people as a share of the Indonesian population has implications on the expected support ratio. While there were 7.7 older people supported by 100 workers in 2010, the number of dependents (including children) is expected to increase to 44 per 100 workers  (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014; Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia, 2015b).


Adioetomo, S. M., & Mujahid, G. (2014). Indonesia on The Threshold of Population Ageing – UNFPA Indonesia Monograph Series: No.1. (H. Posselt, Ed.; Issue 1). UNFPA Indonesia.

CIA World Factbook. (2019). Indonesia. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/indonesia/

Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia. (2015b). National Strategy: Management of Alzheimer and Other Dementia Diseases: Towards Healthy and Productive Older Persons. Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia.

Subdirectorate of Statistical Demographic. (2013). Indonesia Population Projection 2010-2035. BPS – Statistics Indonesia.