Population projections between 2010 and 2060 show that the proportion of people aged 14 years and below will decrease from approximately 25% to 15%. In the age-group 15-64 years, this proportion will also diminish from around 68% in 2010 to 60% in 2060. Differently, among people aged 65 and over, the proportion will increase from around 7.3% in 2010 to 25.5% in 2060. However, such figures are remarkably different across the country’s regions (more older people tend to be located in the southern areas and fewer older people tend to be located in the northern areas) due to socioeconomic and health conditions that significantly affect life expectancy rates (see next item about life expectancy) (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, 2019g). In 2019, the growth rate in Brazil was 0.79% per year. (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, 2019d).

The total dependency ratio in Brazil means the ratio of the population assumed as economically dependent (those under 15 years old and those over 60 years old) and the age segment assumed to be productive (those between 15 and 59 years old) among a population living in a specific geographical area, in a specific year. High values indicate that the “working-age population” must sustain a large proportion of dependents. (RIPSA, 2019). In other words, this measure is used to show differences in the size of population groups that are assumed not to be in engaged in the labour market and those who are. Currently, the total dependence ratio in Brazil is of around 44.29 (2020) and it is expected to increase to 67.23 by 2060. In people aged 65 and over, the dependency ratio is of 14.18, which is expected to reach 42.62 by 2060 (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, 2019c).

References:

Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. (2019c). IBGE | Projeção da população. https://www.ibge.gov.br/apps/populacao/projecao/index.html

Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. (2019d). IBGE divulga as estimativas da população dos municípios para 2019. https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/agencia-sala-de-imprensa/2013-agencia-de-noticias/releases/25278-ibge-divulga-as-estimativas-da-populacao-dos-municipios-para-2019

Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. (2019g). Population projections.

RIPSA. (2019). Razão de Dependência.