DESK REVIEWS | 01.01.05. Ageing and life expectancy

DESK REVIEW | 01.01.05. Ageing and life expectancy

The total fertility rate in Brazil in 2019 was 1.77 and this is expected to decrease to 1.68 by 2050. The crude natality and mortality rates in Brazil in 2019 were 14.20 and 6.51, respectively. By 2050, mortality rate is expected to increase to 10.69% and natality rate is expected to decrease to 9.89%. In 2019, mortality rate in children under 2 years old was 11.94%, and this is expected to reduce to 7.24% by 2050 (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, 2002, 2019f).

The ageing index in Brazil is defined as the number of people aged 60 years and over per every 100 people under 15 years of age, in a population living in a geographical space in a determined year. Advanced values for this index indicate the population is at advanced stages of the demographic transition. The ageing index in Brazil is expected to increase over the years, from 29.55 in 2010 to 173.47 in 2060 (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, 2020; Interagency Health Information Network, 2008). The median age of the population in 2000 was 24.2 years (23.5 years for men and 24.9 years for women). By 2018, median age raised to 32.6 years (the highest median age was in Rio Grande do Sul (35.9), and the lowest in was in Acre (24.9) (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, 2002, 2019f).

Life expectancy at birth is also increasing in Brazil, with this being 73.3 for men and 80.2 for women in 2020. By 2060, these are expected to reach 77.9 for men and 84.2 for women. However, life expectancy rates are remarkably different across the country’s regions. For example, the life expectancy for both males and females were 79.6 in Santa Catarina (in the South of Brazil) in 2018 and are expected to increase to 84.5 years in 2060. Differently, in 2018 life expectancy at birth for both genders in the state of Maranhão (in the Northeast of Brazil) was 71.1 and is projected to be 78.2 years in 2060 (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, 2002, 2019f).

References:

Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. (2002). Tendencia demográfica.

Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. (2019f). Population projections.

Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. (2020). Tabela 4492: Pessoas de 18 anos ou mais de idade que referem diagnóstico médico de diabetes, total, percentual e coeficiente de variação, por condição em relação à força de trabalho na semana de referência e situação do domicilio. SIDRA. https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/tabela/4492

Interagency Health Information Network (Ed.). (2008). Indicadores básicos para a saúde no Brasil: Conceitos e aplicações (2a edição). Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde, Escritório Regional para as Américas da Organização Mundial da Saúde. http://tabnet.datasus.gov.br/tabdata/livroidb/2ed/indicadores.pdf

Life expectancy

According to the World Health Statistics report (World Health Organization, 2018), life expectancy in India is estimated to be 68.8 years on average, with 67.4 years for males and 70.3 years for females. According to the Elderly in India report (National Statistical Office, 2021), during the period between 2014-2018, the life expectancy at birth was 70.7 years for females and 68.2 years for males. Whereas the sex ratio for elderly population is projected to be 1065 females per 1000 males in 2021 (National Statistical Office, 2021). This is higher than the previous decade, wherein the sex ratio for the elderly population was reported as 1028 females per 1000 males (National Statistical Office, 2021). The report also states that the overall life expectancy has increased in both, rural and urban area in India, with life expectancy at birth having increased from 48 years (1970-1975) to 68 years (2014-2018) in rural areas and from 58.9 years (1970-1975) to 72.6 years (2014-2018) in urban areas.

Life expectancy at different ages

Life expectancy at age 0, 60, and 70 between the period 2014-2018 was reported to be 69.4 years, 18.2 years, and 11.6 years, respectively (National Statistical Office, 2021).

Median age of the population

As per the United Nation’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the median age of the population in India in 2015 was estimated to be 26.8 years (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2019b).

Total fertility rate

As per the National Family Health Survey-5 2019-21 (International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), 2021), the fertility rate (children per woman) has dropped to 2 from the 2.2 reported in 2015-16.

Total population aged 65 years and above

According to the World Bank (2020c), in 2020, the percentage of the total population aged 65 years and above was 7%.

Total dependency ratio

The World Population Prospects (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, 2019a) estimate that in 2015, the total dependency ratio (ratio of population aged 0-14 and 65 plus per 100 population 15-64) in India was 51.6 and they projected that this would decrease to 47.5 by 2050.

Old-age dependency ratio

The Elderly in India report (National Statistical Office, 2021) provides the old-age dependency ratio (number of people 60 and above per 100 working age population (15-59 years)) trends in India. According to the report the old age dependency ratio rose from 10.9% in 1961 to 14.2% in 2011. Population projections estimate that there will be a further increase concerning the old age dependency ratio to 15.7% and 20.1% in 2021 and 2031, respectively (National Statistical Office, 2021). An earlier Elderly in India report (Borah et al., 2016) states that there is an increasing trend in the gap between male and female old-age dependency ratio, which was reported in 2011 as 13.6% and 14.9%, respectively. As per the projections for 2021, this increasing trend in the gap has been consistent, with old-age dependency ratio for male and female estimated as 14.8% and 16.7%, respectively (National Statistical Office, 2021). With respect to urban and rural areas, the old age dependency ratio according to Census 2011 was 15.1% and 12.4% respectively (Borah et al., 2016; National Statistical Office, 2021). The significant difference in old-age dependency ratios between urban and rural areas has been attributed to the relatively higher proportion of working age population living in urban areas (Borah et al., 2016; National Statistical Office, 2021).

States variations

State-wise variations in elderly population exist. According to the 2011 Census, Kerala (12.6%), Goa (11.2%), and Tamil Nadu (10.4%) report the largest proportion of the elderly in their population (Borah et al., 2016). Whereas Dadra & Nagar Haveli (4.0 %), Arunachal Pradesh (4.6 %), and Meghalaya (4.7 %) report the least proportion of elderly individuals in their population in 2011 (Borah et al., 2016). In addition, population projections for 2021 estimate that the proportions of the elderly have reached 16.5% and 13.6% in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, respectively (National Statistical Office, 2021).

Future projections

It is projected that the Indian population aged 60 and over will increase from 8% in 2015 to 19% in 2050 (United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), 2017). By the end of the century, it is estimated that 34% of the total Indian population will comprise of elderly people (aged 60+) (UNFPA, 2017).

References:

Borah, H., Shukla, P., Jain, K., Kimar, S., Prakash, C., & Gajrana, K. (2016). Elderly in India 2016.Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India.

International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS). (2021). National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) 2019-21 India. Mumbai. http://rchiips.org/nfhs/NFHS-5_FCTS/India.pdf

National Statistical Office. (2021). Elderly in India. National Statistical Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Government of India. Available from: https://www.mospi.gov.in/documents/213904/301563/Elderly%20in%20India%2020211627985144626.pdf/a4647f03-bca1-1ae2-6c0f-9fc459dad64c

United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). (2017). ‘Caring for Our Elders: Early Responses’ – India Ageing Report – 2017. UNFPA, New Delhi, India. Available from: https://india.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/India%20Ageing%20Report%20-%202017%20%28Final%20Version%29.pdf

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019a). World Population Prospects 2019 – Data Query. Available, from https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019b). World Population Prospects 2019, Online Edition. Rev. 1.

World Health Organization. (2018). World Health Statistics Monitoring Health for SDGs. https://doi.org/Geneva: World Health Organization; 2018. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO. Available from: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/272596/9789241565585-eng.pdf

World Bank (2020c). Proportion of population aged 65 and above. Available from: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS

In the last four decades, average life expectancy has increased dramatically, from 45 years in 1971 to 73.2 years in 2018 (70.6 for males and 76.6 for females) (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014; CIA World Factbook, 2019). However, the ageing pattern of Indonesia is complex. Indonesia defines older people as people aged 60 or over (Pusat Data dan Informasi Kementerian Kesehatan RI, 2014).

In provinces, where family planning policies showed greatest success, such as in East Java, the proportion of older people is higher than in other parts of the country. In comparison, in East Java the proportion of older people as part of total population growth is estimated to increase by over 24 per cent, while in East Nusa Tenggara older people are only expected to contribute 17.4 per cent to population growth (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, p.xi). The largest proportion of older people in Indonesia (57%) can be found in the three most populated provinces East Java, Central Java, and West Java (over 47% of the Indonesia population). Projections based on 2010 Census data suggest that the proportion of older people will increase across all 33 provinces. This data does not include projections for the 34th province, North Kalimantan, which was only established in 2015 (Legislation no. 20/2012). The provinces, where older people make up a larger share of the population may have a higher prevalence of dementia, as ageing and non-communicable diseases are the main risk factors of reduced cognitive function (Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia, 2015b).

Furthermore, differences in the proportion of older people can also be found between urban and rural areas. Data from the 2010 Census suggest that a greater proportion of older people (8.7%) lives in rural than in urban (6.5%) areas and people in rural areas are also likely to be older than those in urban areas. Finally, an urban-rural difference can also be found for potential support ratios, suggesting a lower ratio for urban (11.0) than rural (16.1) areas according to Census 2010 data. This difference is likely to be related to in-country migration patterns, where younger people move to urban areas for education and employment, while older people move back to rural areas for retirement (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, pp.22-26).

Based on the 2010 census, it was predicted that the proportion of older people (65+) will increase from 5.0% in 2010 to 5.4% by 2015, 6.2%  by 2020 and reach 10.6% by 2050. However, it can be difficult to compare this data to information from other sources as in Indonesia ‘older people’ are defined as people aged 60 or above. Data for people aged 60 and older is more commonly available.

The dependency ratio reflects the ratio between the number of people requiring support (children and older people) to those of working age. Since 1971 the total dependency ratio for Indonesia has been declining but the curve is expected to stall over the next decade. The total dependency ratio in 2015 was estimated to be 49.2 (CIA World Factbook, 2019). However, an increasing old-age dependency ratio is likely to offset this trend after 2030. In 2015, the old-age dependency ratio was estimated to be 7.6, but by 2035 this ratio is expected to increase to 15.6 (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, p.8; CIA World Factbook, 2019).

Male life expectancy at birth (70.6 years) is considerably lower than female life expectancy (76.6 years, 2018 estimate). In terms of overall life expectancy Indonesia ranks 142th in the world (CIA World Factbook, 2019).

In the last four decades, life expectancy has increased dramatically, from 45 years in 1971 to 73.2 years in 2018 (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014; CIA World Factbook, 2019).

The median age of the Indonesian population in 2018 was estimated to be 30 years. Males were found to be slightly younger (29.9 years median age) than females (31.1 years median age) (CIA World Factbook, 2019). Future projections suggest that median age will increase to 33.7 years by 2035 (Adioetomo & Mujahid, 2014, p.9).

Total fertility rate in Indonesia in 2016 was estimated to be 2.4. This is a considerable decrease from an estimated 5.7 in 1960 (World Bank, 2018a).

References:

Adioetomo, S. M., & Mujahid, G. (2014). Indonesia on The Threshold of Population Ageing – UNFPA Indonesia Monograph Series: No.1. (H. Posselt, Ed.; Issue 1). UNFPA Indonesia.

CIA World Factbook. (2019). Indonesia. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/indonesia/

Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia. (2015b). National Strategy: Management of Alzheimer and Other Dementia Diseases: Towards Healthy and Productive Older Persons. Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia.

Pusat Data dan Informasi Kementerian Kesehatan RI. (2014). Situasi dan analisis lanjut usia (pp. 1–7).

Subdirectorate of Statistical Demographic. (2013). Indonesia Population Projection 2010-2035. BPS – Statistics Indonesia.

World Bank. (2018a). Fertility rate, total (births per woman) – Indonesia. World Development Indicators. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=ID

Age distribution

3.07% of the population is above 65 years while the majority (38.71%) is below 15 years. Those aged between 15 to 24 years, 25 to 54 years and 55 to 64 years constitute 20.45%, 33.75% and 4.01% of the population respectively (Central Intelligence Agency, 2019).

Median age

The median age in Kenya is about 18 years (World Health Rankings, 2018).

Life expectancy at birth

Life expectancy at birth is 66.7 years  (64.4 years for males and 68.9 years for females) (World Health Rankings, 2018).

Total fertility rate

Fertility rate of 2.98 (World Health Rankings, 2018) due to high fertility, early marriages and still a continuing high unmet need for family planning.

References:

Central Intelligence Agency. (2019). The World Factbook: Africa – Kenya. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/kenya/

World Health Rankings. (2018). Health Profile: Kenya. https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/country-health-profile/kenya

According to INEGI (INEGI, 2010a), life expectancy in Mexico in the year 2010 was 77 years for women and 71 for men, while 2016 estimates show an increment to 78 and 73 years for women and men, respectively. There are important differences by states, in parallel with socioeconomic development in the country with northern states showing notably higher life expectancy than southern states. For example, in northern states like Nuevo León, Coahuila, and Baja California life expectancy in 2015 was 76.4, 75.7 and 76 years, in southern states like Chiapas, Guerrero and Oaxaca was 72.8, 72.9 and 73, respectively (INEGI, 2015c). The latest World Population Prospects (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2017b) estimate that by the year 2050 life expectancy in Mexico will be 82.6 years, 84.2 years for women and 81 for men. By 2100 this is expected to increase to and 88.9 years, with 90.1 and 87.7, for men and women, respectively (Table 1).

Table 1. Life expectancy In México for several years and projections to 2100

1950 1970 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2050 2075 2100
Life expectancy at birth 50.7 60.3 69.8 73.7 74.9 75.7 76.5 77.4 79.2 82.6 86.1 88.9
Male life expectancy at birth 48.9 58.2 66.8 71.3 72.4 73.3 74.0 75.0 77.0 81.0 84.9 87.7
Female life expectancy at birth 52.5 62.5 73 76.1 77.4 78.1 78.9 79.8 81.4 84.2 87.2 90.1
Life expectancy at age 15 49.3 54.3 58.8 61.5 62.1 62.9 63.5 64.2 65.6 68.5 71.7 74.3
Life expectancy at age 65 12.6 14.8 16.5 17.4 17.7 18.5 18.9 19.3 20.1 21.8 23.9 25.8

Source: (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2017b)

References:

INEGI. (2010a). Banco de indicadores.

INEGI. (2015c). Mortalidad. Esperanza de vida al nacimiento por entidad federativa.

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, P. D. (2017b). World population prospects: the 2017 revision. Volume II: Demographic Profiles, 2, 1–883. https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/Files/WPP2017_Volume-II-Demographic-Profiles.pdf